05 Jul Bitcoin Bottom Getting Closer as Speculators Almost ‘Completely Expulsed’: Glassnode
After confirming that June was bitcoin’s worst trading month in over a decade, the analytics resource Glassnode suggested that the bottom could be near as the so-called “market tourist” have fled the scene. However, the company’s latest report warned that this cycle could be different due to outside economic pressure.
June Went Bad
Although April and May didn’t go all that well for the primary cryptocurrency either, the asset still entered June at above $30,000. In fact, it stood at just over $32,000 (on Bitstamp).
It had already lost about 40% of value since the yearly peak at the end of March, but the situation worsened in the following 30 days amid the ongoing market crash. As crypto lenders stopped withdrawals and hedge funds became insolvent, the shockwave hit all cryptocurrencies, including the largest one.
Bitcoin nosedived to an 18-month low in the middle of the month at $17,500. Although it recovered some ground in the following few weeks, it still ended June just under $20,000.
This meant that bitcoin had ended its worst quarter in terms of price actions in over a decade. Moreover, June turned out to be the most violent trading month since 2011, as Glassnode described it in the latest report:
“Prices traded down -37.9% over the last 30-days, competing only with the 2011 bear market, for the crown of worst month on record.”
Market Tourists Capitulate
Amid this massive slump, Glassnode noted that the so-called “market tourists” have been purged. The company believes such investors arrive at the scene during market upticks, increasing network activity. This has not been the case in the past several months, though.
“Almost the entire suite of on-chain activity metrics indicate that the number and activity of network users are approaching the deepest historical bear market territory. The Bitcoin network is approaching a state where almost all speculative entities and market tourists have been completely purged from the asset.”
At the same time, Glassnode said long-term holders remain present who are typically known for their “high conviction accumulation and self-custody.”
Ross Mayfield, an investment-strategy analyst at Baird, agreed with Glassnode’s suggestion that the bottom could be near, at least according to on-chain data and investors’ behavior. However, he believes there’s still a chance for BTC to head further south due to the macroeconomic situation in terms of a possible recession and the Fed continuing to raise interest rates.
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