In a recent analysis, a crypto market expert has discovered key elements that could trigger a massive surge in the Bitcoin price.
Head of Research at CoinShares, James Butterfill has published an in-depth analysis of a revelation that could catalyze a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price. Butterfill’s research delves deep into the present dynamics of the crypto market surrounding the potential approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the inflows that could follow.
Using an analysis by Galaxy, Butterfill deduced that if 10% of the $14.4 trillion addressable assets within the US were to go into Spot Bitcoin ETFs, each with a 1% allocation, then over $14.4 billion inflows would be witnessed. If the predictions prove true, Butterfill has stated that it would signify the largest influx ever seen in the financial markets.
“One could assume that perhaps 10% invest in a spot bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, which would equate to US$14.4 billion of inflows in the first year. If this were correct then it would be the largest inflows on record, with the largest so far being in 2021, which saw US$7.24 billion of inflows, representing 11.5% of assets under management (AuM),” Butterfill stated.
The crypto expert also highlighted a distinct correlation between asset under management (AuM) inflows and price changes, suggesting that price surges occur around the same time inflows increase.
“There does seem to be a relationship between inflows as a percentage of AuM and change in price. Inflows do appear to be coincident, the week the prices rise so do flows rather than one leading the other,” Butterfill said.
In his research, James Butterfill also predicted that the price of Bitcoin could rise as high as $141,000 if driven by $14.4 billion inflows.
He stated reservations about his deductions, citing that it would be difficult to accurately estimate the amount of inflows that would occur if Spot Bitcoin ETFs were introduced.
“If we take the aforementioned US$14.4 billion of inflows, the model suggests it could push the price up to US$141,000 per Bitcoin. The problem with the estimate of inflows is that it is very difficult to ascertain exactly how much inflows there will be when the spot ETFs are launched,” Butterfill stated.
Butterfill also acknowledged the uncertainties surrounding demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs following its potential approval. He stated that there were many variables, both regulatory and corporate that could significantly influence the perception of Bitcoin’s role in society.
“Ultimately, it is very difficult to ascertain just how big the potential wall of demand will be once a spot-based ETF is launched. We know that it effectively diversifies a portfolio and enhances Sharpe ratios, but regulatory approval and corporate acceptance are slow-burn issues due to Bitcoin’s perceived complexity,” Butterfill concluded.
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