With Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) currently priced at about $82,000, down from its high of more than $109,000 in January, investors are doubtlessly looking for some good news that might help them to believe that their holdings will be worth more in the future than they’re worth right now.
As it turns out, there’s one big factor that isn’t part of the conversation about the coin at the moment, even though it’s actually fairly well-known. Here’s the one number you need to know to appreciate why Bitcoin’s future as an investment looks even brighter than its impressive run to date.
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It’s obvious that the more people who buy Bitcoin in a given day, the more its price will go up as buyers compete for the limited supply.
Similarly, the more people who resolve to hold onto their coins rather than sell them, the fewer coins there will be to distribute from holders to buyers on any given day, creating a supply crunch that also generates higher prices. Therefore, the number of people who currently hold Bitcoin in comparison to the total population of people who might want to hold it is a key consideration for determining the direction of its price over the long term. And the dynamics look very favorable here.
As of late 2024, various estimates concluded that between 1% to 4% of the global population owns Bitcoin. Within this in mind, we can see why it’s nearly inevitable for Bitcoin to go higher in the long term.
Most people do not yet hold any Bitcoin. At least some of those people have capital that they will seek to allocate at some point in their lives. Many of them who do not currently hold Bitcoin are likely to start holding it at some point in the future if its adoption continues in line with past rates. That implies a huge amount of demand for the coin, which, as you’ve probably heard, is perpetually in increasingly shorter supply due to the halving mechanic baked into the crypto’s protocol.
Against what some may expect, people in developed countries are not the only ones who hold it; the populations of many emerging economies like the Philippines and Vietnam feature fairly high rates of Bitcoin ownership. This is an important nuance because it implies that countries that are experiencing rapid economic growth are also those with large populations and rising incomes. Those rising incomes are going to generate capital that will need to be invested somewhere, and as the social proof is already gaining ground, Bitcoin is going to be one of the places where those people invest.
Then, as the long-term upward movement of Bitcoin’s price is reestablished, even more investors are likely to come along to buy. After a certain point, sentiment becomes embedded, and the longest-holding holders get rewarded the most over time.
The beauty of the case for buying Bitcoin is that it doesn’t really matter if your estimate for the proportion of global Bitcoin holders is 1%, 4%, or higher. The supply of coins is limited, and growth of that supply steadily slows as it gets harder and harder to mine new coins over time.
In other words, regardless of whether there are more buyers for it in the future or in the past, whoever is in the market will be bidding for a smaller number of new coins. The addition of new buyers just makes the process of the price increase occur faster, as it means there’s more capital chasing the same ever-shrinking pile of assets being produced.
Just keep in mind that the idea of 100% of the human population owning Bitcoin is a pipe dream, even if it’s probably a good idea for every investor to hold some. Topping out at 15% of the global population or so, which is similar to the proportion of U.S. residents that hold Bitcoin right now, would still leave a very long road for new money to flow into the chain, boosting prices for everyone.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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