The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States has stirred considerable attention in recent weeks. Dan Morehead, CEO and founder of Pantera Capital, has now shared valuable insights on this matter in his latest “Blockchain Letter”, emphasizing the unique circumstances surrounding this event.
Morehead challenges the traditional Wall Street mantra, “Buy the rumor, sell the news,” questioning its relevance in the current spot ETF context. He reflects on how this adage played out historically, specifically citing the CME Futures launch and Coinbase’s public listing. Both instances exhibited significant price surges in the BTC market before their respective events, followed by steep downturns, aligning with the adage’s prediction.
In his detailed analysis, Morehead recounts how the Bitcoin market rallied dramatically, up to 2,448%, leading up to the CME futures launch. However, this bullish trend abruptly reversed on the very day the futures were listed, marking the start of an 84% decline into a bear market. He parallels this with the Coinbase public listing scenario, where the market again surged, this time by 848%, reaching its peak on the day of Coinbase’s listing, only to be succeeded by a 76% drop.
Morehead, with a touch of humor, notes in his letter, “Will someone please remind me the day before the Bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table.”
However, “this time is different,” states Morehead. Further delving into the potential impact of a spot ETF, he posits that such an ETF would represent a significant step in the adoption. Unlike futures, which he argues were a “step backwards,” the spot ETF could fundamentally change access to BTC, opening up new investor pools and potentially altering the demand function for Bitcoin permanently.
Unlike the previous events of the CME futures and Coinbase listing, which had little real-world impact on Bitcoin accessibility, Morehead believes the spot ETF scenario is fundamentally different. He asserts, “A BlackRock ETF fundamentally changes access to Bitcoin. It will have a huge (positive) impact.” His view is that the ETF will introduce BTC to broader investor classes, significantly altering the investment landscape.
Drawing a parallel with the history of gold ETFs, Morehead suggests that Bitcoin ETFs could similarly revolutionize Bitcoin investment, expanding its appeal and legitimacy. He predicts a substantial shift in the demand dynamics for Bitcoin, akin to how gold ETFs altered the gold market.
In his concluding remarks, Morehead revisits the initial question about the ETF launch being a “sell the news” event. He argues, “Buy the rumor, buy the news.” This phrase encapsulates his belief that, unlike past events, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF will not lead to a sell-off but will mark the beginning of a new era in Bitcoin investment.
At press time, BTC traded at $37,341.
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