The Bitcoin market appears to be at a critical phase, as evidenced by data from a recent on-chain evaluation. According to this latest analysis, the Bitcoin price shows few signs of a clear directional trend, with uncertainty as the prevailing structure.
In an X post on May 2, pseudonymous market analyst Darkfost reveals that Bitcoin is in a transitional phase, based on a reading from the Bitcoin Bull Score Index.
For context, this metric primarily measures overall market strength by combining key indicators — such as liquidity, demand, activity, and sentiment — into a single value that indicates whether conditions are bullish or bearish. According to Darkfost, the Bull Score stands at 50 on the metric, a level the market expert notes is neutral. Notably, while a ‘50’ reading is typically taken as a sign of short-term improvement, it still does not reflect a shift in the market’s structure.
We can clearly visualize on this chart the transitional phase Bitcoin is currently in.
Caught between a breakout and a continuation of the correction.
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This Bull Score Index is a composite map aggregating several key indicators related to liquidity, demand, activity, and… pic.twitter.com/NlhSDRdjtT
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 2, 2026
The bull index readings are supported by a confluence of three on-chain events. First, while demand might exist in the market, it is still too weak to be of any consequence to Bitcoin’s price. Secondly, a significant number of Bitcoin investors are still holding unrealized losses. The combination of low demand and high unrealized losses further reduces the likelihood of prices seeing significant bullish pressure. This is because investors are increasingly pushed to exit their positions rather than being incentivized to hold or add more.
The third component of this dynamic is the event where too few investors are holding while accumulating profits in their bags. This is actually an important metric to monitor, as healthy bullish markets are often characterized by widespread profitability across investors. As such, there is increased confidence to hold their positions and transact more in Bitcoin’s name.
Darkfost notes that Bitcoin is still transitioning into a more defined bullish structure. But even if this were to happen, the analyst notes that we still cannot conclude that a new bull cycle has begun. To be on the safer side, it would be more sensible, implies the analyst, to see such moves as mere recoveries within a broader corrective cycle. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $78,828. According to more data from CoinMarketCap, the world’s leading cryptocurrency is up 0.86% over the past 24 hours.
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