Beginning last Friday, the $BTC price dropped back through the major $69K level. A weak response from the bulls does not imply that much confidence for the start of this week. A horrible closing candle in the weekly time frame suggests that $60K could be next.
Source: TradingView
The $BTC price appears to be rebounding following a decent sell-off from the middle of last week and into the weekend. On the surface of it, things are looking reasonably good as $BTC is showing a 2.7% gain on the day so far.
Nevertheless, dark clouds are gathering. The Middle East conflict continues unabated, and US and global economic conditions look even more uncertain than when the conflict started. How does Bitcoin rise into this uncertainty?
There are analysts who are of the opinion that Bitcoin can indeed have a role to play as the debasement trade plays out, but for the time being liquidity is still short, and that is likely to be the major factor in a potential Bitcoin recovery.
As things stand, if one looks at the 4-hour chart above, the $BTC price is perhaps in dangerous territory. While the bounce is unfolding, it can be seen that the price fell below the VPVR point of control.
The VPVR (volume profile visible range) is extremely helpful as it pinpoints the level at which most trading is taking place. The blue and yellow bars get longer as they near the price level where the major battle develops between the bulls and the bears. Here it can be seen that the “point of control” is at $67,800. This is now a magnet for the price. The job of the bulls is to get above this level and to move higher. The upside (or downside) movement can become quicker as the bars get shorter.
The bulls will need to take advantage of the momentum they have behind them now, but as can be seen in the Stochastic RSI, this could soon start to diminish as the indicator lines potentially start to come back down from the top.
Source: TradingView
A cleaner looking chart in the daily time frame shows the big surge out of the descending channel, which ended up being totally unsuccessful. This wasn’t just a fakeout either, given that the $74,000 high from the surge surpassed the measured move out of the channel, although it was short of the $75,000 measured move out of the bull flag.
Having come back inside the channel, the $BTC price was arrested by the $66,750 horizontal support, and we are seeing a nice bounce from there. The current daily candle is also enveloping the previous red daily candle, which does bode well.
At the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index illustrates how the indicator line has continued to rise after bottoming at the $60,000 pivot low. Although the price action has only really gone sideways in all this time. This has to change, and soon, if the bulls are to avoid another down leg.
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart is still in the balance, but last week’s candle close was not a good one. The candle itself is a bearish pin bar, verging on a gravestone doji, which is the most bearish candle there is.
To add to this, the price action may now be forming inside another potential bear flag, drawn in dashed lines. Even if the $BTC price gets to the top of the flag, which also might coincide with the top of the falling channel, the chances are that a rejection could follow, bringing the price down below $50,000.
For the bulls, could a W pattern emerge perhaps, that provides the impulse to take the price through the top of the potential bear flag and the descending channel? This would be extremely bullish. That said, the bears still have the upper hand – will they take advantage?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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