Over the last week, the Bitcoin price has continued to see sustained selling pressure, with the flagship cryptocurrency trading around $73,400. According to recent on-chain data, changes in key market structures suggest Bitcoin might remain in this bearish state in the near to mid-term.
In a recent post on QuickTake, on-chain analyst Carmelo Alemán revealed a notable decline in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap values. The analyst notes that, since January 19, the metric has dropped by 3.63%, from around $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion; a decline of $40.847 billion.
Interestingly, this period of the Realized Cap’s decline coincides with Bitcoin’s descent of over 20% from $92,593 to its current valuation. For context, the Realized Cap metric measures the total amount of capital invested in Bitcoin by valuing each BTC at the price it last moved on-chain, rather than at the current market price.
Given that both the Bitcoin price and the Realized Cap experienced a steady yet notable downturn, this correlation is a telltale sign that investors have likely been withdrawing their capital rather than holding through Bitcoin’s moves.
Further unsettling is Alemán’s highlighting that wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC seem to have joined the selling spree. These wallets, commonly referred to as Humpback Whales, are reported to have sold off approximately 612,753 BTC between the 11th and 28th of May. As such, the analyst points out that they currently dominate as the sources of spot bearish pressure.
Interestingly, these huge Bitcoin sales correspond with an accelerated growth of capital outflows, which began on May 14th. Alemán notes that, as expected, the Bitcoin price dropped by approximately 10.72% during this period, from $82,365 to $73,530.
Ultimately, the three highlighted on-chain conditions — falling Realized Cap, growing spot outflows, and aggressive whale distribution — paint a bearish picture for the Bitcoin price in the short term. The crypto analyst explained that the Bitcoin price is likely to maintain a downtrend, especially if it continues to be driven by speculative activity. However, the premier cryptocurrency could also quickly gain stability if the BTC spot market sees a resumption of inflows.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,485. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the Bitcoin price has barely moved over the past day, recording a 0.3% loss. On the weekly timeframe, however, Bitcoin is down by 2.43%.
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