As Bitcoin breaks out of the $21k level, many crypto analysts have begun projecting further rallies for the asset. One of the famous crypto strategists, Crypto Kaleo, recently gave a high price prediction for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Addressing his over 550,000 followers on Twitter, Kaleo says BTC is preparing for a rally to $30,000. Bitcoin last saw $30,000 during the bear market in June 2022. However, the crypto strategist believes there would be fluctuations as Bitcoin targets $30,000, albeit his bullish stance.
In his words, the market should expect more falls before Bitcoin reaches $30,000. According to Kaleo, there would be some lows beneath $20k, which would trigger lower positions before Bitcoin can be ready for the short squeeze.
A short squeeze occurs when crypto traders borrow assets at a particular price, hoping to sell them lower and keep the difference. These traders often use overleverage short positions in the futures market. However, the traders would have no choice but to buy the borrowed assets as price propulsion pushes against them, sparking more rallies as market makers take out their liquidity to keep the momentum.
Kaleo is confident that the short squeeze is approaching since the BTC price has already jumped above 23% within seven days.
BTC has witnessed several bullish indicators since the beginning of 2023, bringing it to a year-high of over $21,000. Bitcoin’s bullish rallies have boosted crypto traders’ hopes that the long-running bear market could end soon.
There has been a reduction in the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index to neutral, which might cause an increase in trading volume.
A massive increase in Bitcoin trading volume followed the recent price surge. Throughout the past week, Bitcoin trading volume has climbed above double the initial value, reaching $10.8 billion, a 114% increase.
An increase in trading volume often leads to a spike in volatility. Bitcoin’s current seven-day volatility level of 2.4% is below the 2022 value of 3.1% but remained stable during the recent rally. There is a likelihood that the constantly increasing trading volume during the rally may cause a spike in volatility.
Centralized exchanges (CEXs) had to battle with low trading volume, which means lower transaction fees and revenue, including staff layoffs. Therefore, the rising trading volume is a welcomed development for the exchanges and BTC traders.
According to Glassnode’s data, on-chain realized profits for BTC return to the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) value of 1.0. Some analysts believe it is the critical resistance level. The aSOPR historically indicates a shift in the total market cycle when increasing demands (trading volumes) absorb profits.
BTC’s on-chain realized profit and loss ratio has jumped over the 1.0 mark, recording 1.56 profits against the January 16 losses. This marked a reversal of the downtrend that started in May 2022. An increase in realized gain without a price drop indicates market strength.
On-chain analytics by Glassnode also suggest that a BTC price recovery is underway. As the market absorbs more selling pressure without a fall in price, the overall fear and macro shift will reduce.
Technically, volatility, trading volume, and realized profits are pushing BTC decoupling from equities. Bitcoin’s previous price action correlates to US equities.
The correlation to equities might have been due to asset accumulation by institutional investors. The correlation has reduced now that institutional investors hold fewer BTC and might exit the market in the future.
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