Bitcoin’s battle with $120,000 could set the stage for fresh record highs, as derivatives data shows signs of both bullish conviction and concentrated risk, while altcoins outperform.
Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to chip away at a key level of resistance at $120,000 as it sets its sights on fresh record highs.
Bearish traders are attempting to defend the area, increasing short positions, but this could fuel the fire and create an impetus to the upside, otherwise known as a short squeeze.
The altcoin market is also performing well, grinding higher despite a relative lack of volatility compared to previous moves the the upside.
Derivatives Positioning
- The BTC futures market remains strongly bullish, with open interest holding at all-time highs above $32 billion. The three-month annualized basis is also elevated, approaching 8%.
- A notable divergence exists, however, in funding rates. Deribit’s rate is exceptionally high at 25%, while other exchanges like Bybit show more neutral funding, suggesting a potential concentration of aggressive long positions in specific areas.
- The BTC options market is showing a state of neutrality. The 24-hour put-call volume is still slightly call-dominated at 52.25%, but this is a decrease from previous days, indicating a potential moderation of bullish conviction.
- Concurrently, the 1-week 25 delta skew is now essentially flat at 0.33%, signaling a balanced implied volatility for both puts and calls.
- This combination of metrics suggests a market that is settling into a more balanced and hesitant phase after a period of stronger bullish sentiment.
- Coinglass data shows $380 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 35-65 split between longs and shorts. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $121,300 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.
Token Talk
By Oliver Knight
- The crypto market continued to edge higher on Friday with the likes of ETH, SOL and XRP all rising by more than 2%, while smaller market cap tokens like ETHFI and CAKE rose by as much as 15% and 25%.
- The relative strength comes as bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, hit $120,000 on Thursday as it takes aim at record highs above $124,000.
- But unlike previous forays above $120,000, this move has been rather muted; with price remaining in a tight range as opposed to a spike in volatility.
- This bodes well for altcoins which typically perform well when bitcoin consolidates as it allows capital to rotate from bitcoin to more speculative bets.
- However, the upside shift has not been kind to a select few tokens, notably MYX Finance (MYX), which was dealt a grueling 43% decline due to a rapid unwind of leverage.
- Plasma’s XPL token, as reported in Thursday’s Daybook, continues to stutter amid speculation around whether market makers are shorting on behalf of the founding team, a claim that XPL founders have denied.
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