Home Depot Inc., the world’s largest home improvement retailer, in its Q4 earnings call highlighted a cautious outlook for 2025, projecting 1% comparable sales growth amid continued pressure on larger remodeling projects due to high interest rates, despite some improvement in housing turnover. Management reported positive transaction comps for the first time in over three years, with broad-based growth across half its merchandise categories, indicating that COVID-related demand shifts have largely normalized. Management highlighted their Pro ecosystem expansion generating $1 billion in incremental sales across 17 markets with enhanced capabilities. The company explained that adjusted operating margin will decrease by 40 basis points year-over-year due to natural deleverage, SRS inclusion, and 53rd-week comparison, while maintaining their long-term model of 3-4% sales growth once the market normalizes.
Home Depot broke its eight-quarter streak of declining comparable sales with a 0.8% increase, exceeding analyst expectations with $3.13 EPS and $39.7 billion revenue. The company saw 14% revenue growth year-over-year with improvements across half of merchandise categories, most U.S. regions, and 9% growth in online sales. Despite this success, the company faces ongoing challenges from high interest rates and housing prices affecting large remodeling projects. For fiscal 2025, the company projects modest growth with total sales increasing by 2.8% and comparable sales up approximately 1%, though adjusted earnings per share are expected to decline by about 2%. Consumer engagement improved with transactions increasing 7.6% to 400.4 million, while operating expenses grew faster than revenue with SG&A costs up 15.7%.
Continue Reading: Unearth the Vital Insights from Home Depot Inc.’s Earnings Call!
Financial/Operational Metrics:
- Net Sales: $39.7 billion, up 14% YoY.
- Net Income: $3 billion, up 7% YoY.
- Diluted EPS: $3.02, up 7% YoY.
- Operating Income: $4.5 billion, up 9% YoY.
- Comp Sales: up 0.8% YoY, US up 1.3% YoY.
- Customer Transactions: 400.4 million, up 7.6% YoY.
FY25 Outlook:
- Diluted EPS: Expected to decline about 3% from $14.91.
- CapEx: About 2.5% of total sales.
- Total Sales Growth: About 2.8%.
- Comparable Sales Growth: About 1%.
- New Store Openings: About 13 stores.
- Gross Margin: About 33.4%.
Analyst Crossfire:
- Housing Market & Home Improvement Demand, Comps & Margin Leverage (Simeon Gutman – Morgan Stanley): Home Depot expects no significant rebound in housing turnover despite minor improvements in Q4. While home equity remains high, larger remodeling projects remain uncertain for 2025 due to high interest rates. If comps exceed 1%, the expected margin leverage would be around 10 basis points. No significant mix shifts are anticipated to alter this relationship (Ted Decker – CEO, Richard McPhail – CFO).
- Weather Impact on Q4 and Exit Run Rate, Market Share & SRS Acquisition Impact (Christopher Horvers – J.P. Morgan, Michael Lasser – UBS): The negative comps in January were influenced by severe weather rather than a consumer slowdown. Holiday shifts also affected the month-to-month sales progression. Home Depot anticipates a flat-to-slightly-growing home improvement market in 2025, with SRS expected to outperform the core business and drive share gains in Pro segments (Richard McPhail – CFO).
- Pro Sales & Incremental Growth in Key Markets, Challenges in Pro Expansion (Scot Ciccarelli – Truist): Home Depot has generated $1 billion in incremental sales in 17 markets with Pro-focused investments. The company will further expand its fulfillment and trade credit capabilities in 2025. The complexity of rolling out Pro-focused capabilities lies in synchronizing sales force expansion, order management, and delivery infrastructure while ensuring seamless execution (Ann-Marie Campbell – SEVP).
- Operating Margin & SRS Impact, Capital Expenditure & Store Expansion (Karen Short – Melius Research): Home Depot adjusts operating margin guidance by excluding non-cash amortization expenses, including those related to SRS. The deleverage trend remains consistent with past guidance. Capital expenditure has increased to 2.5% of sales, primarily due to new store openings. The company remains committed to its plan of 80 new stores by 2027, with 25 already opened (Richard McPhail – CFO).
- Pricing Environment & Tariff Risks, Sales vs. Expense Growth (Steve Zaccone – Citi, Seth Sigman – Barclays): Home Depot sees a stable pricing environment with promotions at pre-COVID levels. Tariff risks are being monitored, but diversification efforts help mitigate potential impacts. Once market conditions normalize, Home Depot expects 3-4% revenue growth, flat gross margins, and operating leverage leading to mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth (Billy Bastek – EVP, Merchandising, Richard McPhail – CFO).
- Gross Margin Stability & Offsets, Pro Initiatives & ROIC Impact (Seth Sigman – Barclays, Zhihan Ma – Bernstein): Gross margins are expected to remain flat in 2025. Productivity improvements in supply chain and store operations, including reduced shrink, will offset the dilution from SRS. Complex Pro initiatives are not expected to significantly impact ROIC. Trade credit exposure remains minimal, and asset-light investments in fulfillment centers and logistics will drive incremental sales (Richard McPhail – CFO, Ted Decker – CEO).
The post HD Q4 Call Highlights: Comps Climb, Pro Sales Soar and Market Uncertainty! first appeared on AlphaStreet.
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