SpaceX’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 could set a floor under its stock.
But its high valuation and upcoming lockup expirations will limit its near-term gains.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has taken its investors on a wild ride since its June 12 IPO. It went public at $135 per share, opened at $150, and reached a record high of $225.64 on June 16. But as of this writing, SpaceX’s stock trades at about $170. Let’s see why it pulled back — and how much upside it might have left after its recent decline.
Image source: Getty Images.
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SpaceX went public with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, making it the biggest IPO in history. But at its peak, its market cap hit $2.66 trillion, or 142 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Even after its pullback, its market cap still hovers at $2.16 trillion, or 116 times its trailing revenue.
That valuation might be justified if you believe Elon Musk’s prediction that SpaceX could generate more than $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. But in reality, SpaceX’s revenue only rose 33% in 2025, and it’s unprofitable because the losses at its space and AI businesses are wiping out Starlink’s profits. SpaceX will also likely rely heavily on debt offerings and dilutive acquisitions (like its recent all-stock takeover of the AI coding start-up Cursor) to expand.
For now, analysts expect SpaceX’s revenue to surge 96% in 2026, 81% in 2027, and 47% to $97.5 billion in 2028. That growth could be driven by Starship, its largest rocket ever; the expansion of Starlink, which already serves over 10.3 million subscribers, and the evolution of xAI’s fragmented business into a formidable AI infrastructure company.
But even if SpaceX hits those targets — which would require hundreds of flawless launches, low interest rates, and a stable macro environment — it already trades at 22 times its 2028 revenue.
On the bright side, SpaceX’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7 could set a floor under its stock, since all funds passively tracking the index will need to purchase it. However, its upcoming lockup expirations — which will start in late July or early August and ramp up through the end of the year — could drive its stock lower as its early investors and insiders cash out. That selling could make SpaceX an attractive target for short sellers.
While SpaceX might still have significant long-term growth potential, I don’t think it has much more upside for the rest of 2026. It still has a lot to prove over the next few quarters, and its high valuation and upcoming lockup expirations will likely limit its near-term gains.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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