SpaceX is riding the wave of a blockbuster IPO.
But earnings are coming, and they will reset market expectations.
SpaceX faces an uphill battle to sustain its current valuation at 118 times 2025 sales.
After a ton of hype and anticipation, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), aka SpaceX, finally began trading on the public market in June. The stock quickly ran to $225 but has since cooled off and settled in the $150-to-$165 range. It’s difficult to know what price the stock might hit by the end of 2026, but there are some potential clues.
It may seem difficult to fathom, but I predict SpaceX could trade down near $100 by the end of 2026. Here’s why.
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Image source: Getty Images.
For starters, SpaceX will likely report earnings for the second quarter sometime in August. It’s the first earnings report since the IPO, a crucial moment as it’s the first chance investors will have to get a fresh look at SpaceX’s ongoing business activities. CEO Elon Musk will have the opportunity to lay out updated guidance and expectations for the business over the coming quarters, and Musk seldom shies away from setting the bar high.
But Wall Street has already set high expectations for SpaceX’s stock. Based on the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.6 billion, the stock’s current market cap of roughly $2.07 trillion values SpaceX at over 111 times sales. Investors will struggle to find an established company’s stock that is anywhere near as expensive.
That alone isn’t troubling, but the business now has to deliver results to justify such a high price tag.
Ultimately, SpaceX’s lofty valuation is probably the sticking point investors want to home in on over the second half of 2026. History contains many fresh IPO stocks that struggled under the weight of high expectations, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the stock sell off once SpaceX’s first earnings report sets new expectations for the coming quarters.
SpaceX grew revenue by 33% from 2024 to 2025. That’s probably not going to cut it for a stock trading at over 100 times its revenue. SpaceX probably needs to accelerate growth. To be clear, that could happen. It has a fresh influx of capital from the IPO and recently announced an agreement to acquire artificial intelligence start-up Anysphere (parent company of AI-powered code editor Cursor) for $60 billion in stock.
But again, the expectations are so incredibly high that it’s going to be very difficult to live up to them. SpaceX would still be pricey at 50 times sales. Even if revenue growth accelerated to 50% in 2026 and SpaceX earned $28 billion in sales, that would translate to a market cap of just $1.4 trillion. That’s a 36% haircut, pricing shares at approximately $103. That’s not even factoring in dilution from the all-stock Anysphere acquisition.
At the end of the day, SpaceX is an exciting company with a tragically expensive stock. It’s probably wise to avoid it until the balloon lets out a bit of hot air.
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Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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