As the altcoin market experiences a resurgence, XRP has struggled to gain momentum, consolidating between $2.70 and $3 for the past two weeks.
Despite the excitement surrounding potential exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could invest in the altcoin if approved, The Motley Fool has cautioned that the current market correction may persist longer than many anticipate.
In a recent analysis, the firm attributed some of XRP’s lackluster performance to a general malaise in the cryptocurrency market, where traders are waiting for Bitcoin (BTC), the market’s leading cryptocurrency, to lead a new price rally.
However, two critical factors suggest that XRP may face a more prolonged downtrend than previously expected. The anticipated launch of new spot crypto ETFs has been a focal point of discussion since the beginning of the year.
Several asset managers have submitted applications to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create spot XRP ETFs, with Bloomberg estimating a 95% approval chance and online prediction markets estimating 94%.
While approval seems likely, the real question revolves around the demand for these ETFs. XRP, currently the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency, undoubtedly has some level of institutional interest, yet the actual inflows tell a different story.
Data indicates that only $1.25 billion flowed into XRP from institutional investors during the first eight months of 2025. JPMorgan Chase has projected that the upcoming ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion into XRP.
However, the firm asserts that even the lower end of this estimate might not significantly influence XRP’s price action over the long-term, given its current market capitalization of $180 billion.
While there is considerable optimism among analysts regarding XRP’s future, with some price predictions suggesting it could reach new record prices of up to $4, $5, or even $10, the firms noted that these projections do not account for the risks of short-term price declines.
According to crypto betting platform, Polymarket, there is a 32% chance of XRP dropping to $2.50 this year, a 30% chance it could fall to $2.40, and a 27% chance of plummeting to $2.
These statistics indicate that XRP could continue to drift lower over the next few months before any meaningful recovery takes place, potentially not occurring until 2026.
Ultimately, The Motley Fool analysis suggests that any upward movement for XRP is likely to depend on Bitcoin’s performance. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim its previous peak by the end of the year, it will be challenging for XRP to initiate its own rally.
As of this writing, the XRP price has recovered the $3.0675 mark, representing a 1.5% surge within the last 24 hours. This pales in comparison to Ethereum’s (ETH) 5% gains within the same time frame.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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