On-chain data shows returns of the 1-year XRP buyers have plunged deep into the red, something that has signaled an opportunity in the past.
In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about the latest trend in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for XRP. The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that measures the ratio between the Market Cap and Realized Cap of a given asset.
In short, the Market Cap represents the value that investors are holding in the present, while the Realized Cap is a measure of the capital that they initially invested into the cryptocurrency. As such, the MVRV Ratio, which compares the two, contains information about the profit-loss balance of the network as a whole.
In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific holder segments: 1-month and 1-year buyers. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the XRP MVRV Ratio has changed for these two groups over the last few years.
As displayed in the graph, the XRP MVRV Ratio has recently been inside the negative zone for both the 30-day and 1-year investors. Thus, coins purchased over both the past month and past year have been underwater.
This loss status among traders is naturally a result of the continued bearish price action that the asset has witnessed over the last few months. The situation has been especially bad for the 1-year buyers, who are in a loss of about 41% right now. This is the lowest level since December 2022, when the market was trading at lows after the FTX crash.
Generally, the more are the investors in loss, the more likely is the market to reach a bottom as profit-sellers run out. Currently the 1-year MVRV level for XRP is so deep that it’s inside a region that the analytics firm defines as the “Opportunity Zone.” As Santiment explains:
Because cryptocurrencies are zero sum trading games, significantly negative average returns (not just a price drop, but actual trader returns) imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding on to your XRP positions, due to the fact that competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory.
Given this dominance of loss among the recent buyers, it now remains to be seen whether the market pain is enough for a bottom or if the cryptocurrency will see its bearish phase prolong further.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.32, down nearly 2% over the last 24 hours.
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